Research

Publications

Bonds vs. Equities: Information for Investment, with Adrien d’Avenas and Andrea L. Eisfeldt [PDF], Journal of Finance (2024)

Abstract: Why do credit spreads explain firm investment better than equity volatility does? In a standard corporate finance setting, this can be explained as a consequence of credit spreads and asset volatility having unambiguous relationships with investment, while equity volatility sends a mixed signal: Elevated volatility raises the option value of equity and increases investment for financially sound firms, but it exacerbates debt overhang and decreases investment for firms close to default. Overall, our study clarifies the structural and empirical relationships between investment, leverage, credit spreads, volatility, and Tobin’s q.

Working Papers

A Macroeconomic Model with Bond Market Liquidity [Draft]

Abstract: I study the effects of bond market liquidity on the macroeconomy. I incorporate over-the-counter secondary bond markets with search frictions into a quantitative macroeconomic model. The model links standard measures of bond illiquidity, such as bid-ask spreads and parameters driving bond illiquidity at the microeconomic level, to macroeconomic variables. In the model, firms rollover long-term bonds. A worsening of bond market liquidity lowers prices of long-term bonds and increases firms’ default probability through the rollover channel. Firms borrow working capital loans to pay wage upfront. A higher default probability leads to higher interest rates on working capital loans and thus higher labor cost, and consequently, employment drops. By calibrating the model to match key features of the US economy during the Great Recession, I show that disruptions in bond market liquidity could explain 36% of the labor drop in data. The paper also provides a structural estimate of the impacts of the Fed’s corporate bond purchasing program on the real economy during the COVID-19 crisis. By improving bond market liquidity, the Fed’s interventions avoided a 4.3 percentage point drop in employment.

Beyond the Targeted Segment: Spillovers from Corporate Bond Purchase Programs [Draft][Appendix], with Shihan Shen

Abstract: We study whether and how demand shocks induced by corporate bond purchase programs (CBPP) transmit beyond where they originate. Using institutional features of passive funds, we construct plausibly exogenous firm-level, maturity-specific demand shocks that mirror those generated by CBPP. We show that these shocks reduce yield spreads, primarily through the liquidity-related component, and generate substantial cross-maturity spillovers. We develop a tractable model of segmented OTC trading and show that transmission is stronger when markets are less segmented and when non-targeted bonds are more liquidity-sensitive, with these mechanisms supported by the data.

CBDC and Banks’ Disintermediation in a Portfolio Choice Model, with Lucyna Górnicka, Federico Grinberg, Marcello Miccoli, and Brandon Tan,[PDF] IMF Working Paper

Abstract: Would the introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) lead to lower bank deposits (disintermediation) and lending by the banking sector? To answer this question, this paper presents a model in which heterogeneous households allocate their wealth among an illiquid asset and payments-capable assets: cash, CBDC, and bank deposits, the last of which is offered by an imperfectly competitive banking sector. Upon the introduction of CBDC, banks raise deposit interest rates to deter substitution from deposits to CBDC. Differently from the previous literature, our findings highlight two divergent effects on the aggregate level of deposits: (1) an intensive margin effect, where wealthier households increase their deposit holdings due to higher interest rates on deposits, and (2) an extensive margin effect where less affluent households transition from bank deposits to CBDC. This second effect is more likely to be stronger and lead to a fall in aggregate deposits when the mass of poorer households is large and when accessing bank accounts is relatively costly. Although the decline in aggregate deposits is small as a share of total wealth, it can have a large impact on banks’ balance sheets and profits. Still, the impact on lending remains modest, provided that banks can resort to alternative funding sources, such as wholesale or central bank financing.